everything

it has been a month since my last post. since then the libyan people have freed themselves from gaddafi. the tunisians have held elections. never again will these people allow themselves to be shackled by dictatorship. we have seen the occupy wall street demonstrations- it is wrong to use public money to bail out institutions. to big to fail is crap. the euro is nearly finished- i think  germans and french should leave the euro so it will devalue greatly and benefit the remaining members boosting their exports and hopefully mange their debts

stockmarkets are a joke

i said it before and i will say it again- when markets can move hundreds of points because someone is considering talking to someone else or unconfirmed rumours circulate proving to be nothing more than rumours then the system is broken. markets are totally manipulated and regulators are totally unwilling or unable to act. when someone drives their car in an unappropriate manner their license is revoked. likewise many of the financial tools available need to be removed or heavily regulated as many of the financial institutions have proven themselves to be unworthy of the trust accredited to them. this should have happened after the GFC1 and now we are staring at GFC2 you can equally blame the regulators and the governments in this complicite behaviour.
all have proven themselves unfit to lead. the people of the world look for real change but instead are explotied by greedy individuals who maintain the status quo at the expense of the citizens of the world.

labour party problems

was just watching gillards talk about how the party was not equipped for the changing individualistic needs of the people and that the labour principle of one fits all is off the past. i wonder what would happen to a labour mp if he expressed his individualism and voted against the carbon tax- i would suggest career over. party politics may offer some stability in government but clearly surpresses free thinking. a lower house held by independants like in australia does cause uncertainty for sure but obviously improves that freedom of thought. the true independant thought comes from the people- my local mp- although democratically elected by the people, truly needs the right to freely express views of his represented people. crossing the floor in parliament should be a normal occurrence, not a career defining event.

greece

it looks like greece will be allowed to default as the plans are put in place for the aftermath. also greece will be allowed to remain in the euro. why would they? the best thing great britian ever did was not join. ever been on a picnic and when you unpack your euro basket the cake had been squashed- well the cake is greece, italy, spain, portugal and ireland. yes it is true that some of these countries are fiscally irresponsible but these countries are unevenly yoked. they need to determine their own monetary policy and sink or swim accordingly. the single european currency is totally dominated by france and germany but to be truly fair all member countries should have an equal say in policy. this wont happen- so it will fail. just like the idea of a world monetary standard. if it cant work in europe how is it going to work worldwide. i think this is why they are so desperate to make people believe that the euro is a success

gdp figure

well i was quite surprised. +1.2 and with a last quarter revision gives a total of +1.1 for the running year. so no recession as yet. no cut in interest rates as long as spending continues and huge amounts of mining investment which i am sure will continue forever- i am a big fan of resource tax?-we all need to profit from this.
on another topic stock markets are a joke. down one day because of european debt concerns. up the next because bernanke thoughtfully stroked his beard. standing back and looking at the big picture; huge debt burdens will suppress growth for many years to come. stock markets will struggle for many years to come.

retail penalty rates

with retail sales struggling the australian retail association has identified the problem- workers weekend penalty rates. i can assure these people that this is not the problem. the problem is no-one has money to spend. the government has their hands in both our pockets scrambling for any loose change and the RBA has their foot firmly planted on our necks.

real gold price

what is the real price of gold/silver? if you take away the elaborate schemes designed to suppress these prices to prop up a failing fiat system which is a debt system- any addition to the money supply is debt. gold has increased 200% in five years despite the shackles holding it back. the latest trick is to increase the margin requirements to buy a contract. All this will do is remove speculators and turn the market into a physical delivery market- which is what it should be anyway. some commentators refer to a gold bubble which will burst when growth resumes.
the truth is fiat currency is in a bubble- and the only political will is to create stimulus to boost growth- ie print more money(debt). the currency debases and gold must rise. the major banks that suppress the price will eventually get burned and the old taxpayer will pay to bail out the banks. the time must come for a new commodity based monetary standard- but who could you trust to ensure that legitimate reserves are held against the issued currency. whoever holds the commodities(or a basket of countries) must be totally transparent. any member country should have the right to independantly inspect the commodities and audits done regularly by a panel of member representatives.

the

australian gdp

here is the score.the last 4 quarters of gdp figures are +1.4, 0, 0.8, -1.2. this gives a total of 1 percent for the last running year. with the last quarters figures due out in a couple of weeks the +1.4 will drop off. this means that a gdp figure of +0.4 is needed just to say that in the last year we had zero growth. if the figure comes in a bit lower we will avoid a technical recession but the truth is we are in one. but according to glen stephens stiff shit- get over it; controlling inflation is all that matters. as the mining boom in australia is amazing to behold- the rest of the country has gone to shit. this quarter is even worse. so while rates remain at 4.75% while the rest of the world is near zero we can lose our jobs and our homes. the fact is that our inflation is being caused by overseas because they keep printing money at zero rates it is not from domestic forces because no-one is spending.

bernanke lays blame

today bb offered no solution to the state of the economy. though he did blame everyone else for the current mess
those that were looking for an immediate QE3 were dissapointed. but i have no doubt it will come. i also have no doubt there will be a QE4 and QE5 unless there is a complete change of direction. one way to prevent this would be to get rid of the fed. they caused this problem in the first place and lets face it- they cant fix it. i couldnt help notice that the dow went up at the end of the day so clearly QE3 is happening soon and also gold shot up $60 before closing despite the huge margin increases  which confirms it.

fatally flawed system

when markets can fluctuate hundreds of points upon the release of any data or rumour of data shows just how false share prices really are. but big dollars are made and lost in volatile markets due to derivatives. these wild swings in share prices are exactly what these big players want and the share price is intentionally manipulated thus. naked short selling(selling stock or commodities you dont own) to artificially alter prices needs to be outlawed. exchange stabilisation funds should cease to manipulate prices. the markets should be free to reflect true value. 

shit hitting the fan

the blame game has started on who lost americas AAA rating. the truth is why- a plan to reduce debt that did not tackle the issue. the downgrade would have happened anyway. so finally the markets have realised that any reduction in debt will come at the cost of growth and down they came. the aussie dollar has free falled as exporting is all we got. gillards dream of a balanced budget by 12/13 has been shot dead- but surely they didnt really believe it- after all they are experts. it is interesting how in times of trouble people flock to the US dollar-but this time it is more noticeable that gold does seem to be more of a foothold as choice

aussie inflation and interest rates

i am not an economist but what do you do when you have rising inflation and negative growth(which no doubt will continue when GDP is released in august). raise rates to control inflation or lower rates to maintain growth. i believe they will rise as the RBA is always inflation driven. my utility bill is going up about 20% this year alone.inflation seems to be accelerating and interest rates will rise further-but this inflation is not driving by local demand. increasing rates will not lower prices much more-but it will close shops down.which is what im seeing occur locally.i see a sustained lack of growth if not shrinkage of our economy for the foreseeable future.
as to interest rates we all know that the banks determine rates in this country which is what occured doing our last run of rises. ANZ believe that they will rise-WESTPAC believe that they will fall. ANZ didnt wait for the RBA to increase last time before they did and WESTPAC didnt either-yet on the downside they await the RBA guidance.

US debt ceiling

It looks like a compromise has been reached on the debt ceiling increase until after the next election.1 trillion over 10 years and a commitee to reduce another 1 trillion over 10 years.since the US racks up about 100 billion debt a month this is merely trimming the hedges.i suppose its a start but come early 2013(assuming the world hasnt ended)the ceiling will be reached again and you will probably find that budget expenditure has increased instead of decreasing. but of course the stock market rebounded-crisis solved. tommorrow never comes in finance.

world debt

It is now a good time to look at world debt issues, something that our government or reserve bank doesn't seem to do. there is still a presence of increasing interest rates driven by inflation-but where is this coming from. i see falling prices in australian retail-people aren't spending, therefore this must be from sources beyond australia.
rising world inflationary pressures caused by the debasement of fiat currency's by the unlimited printing of new money.banks have taken a hit on the greek default and america is arguing over the debt ceiling-which we all know will be increased at the last minute.even now ben bernanke is shining up his golden horse (actually i forgot.he doesn't like gold- its price highlights the great job he is doing).i will rephrase- even now bb is shining up his paper horse to ride in and save the day-the solution-more liquidity; another trillion will fix the problem.
On another note our deepest sympathies go out to the people of Norway.we had a similar event happen here in australia. even after many years it is still uncomprehendable how someone can show that much comtempt for anothers life. In a modern world all people should have the right to seek their own individual path but this should only be on the basis of self improvement and betterment of others-any ideology that utilises fear and hatred as its tools will be resigned to the past as together we move forward

carbon tax2

as the labor party cranks up their advertising campaign to sell the carbon tax i must mention a few things.when gillard said all would be revealed that appears to be another lie. nothing was really explained- no new tax scales.no mention of blowing 4 billion on purchasing overseas credits-which are totally bogus. i also read that the sale of a home will require a green star rating costing several thousand. another bogus scheme used to rob the people. please dont waste our money, used it in the most efficient manner.
also one more point about the carbon tax. would labor be pushing it if the greens did not hold the balance of power? no way. the greens have got their fingers all over this. so come out from under gillard's skirt and stake your claim

carbon tax

do we need a carbon tax? firstly i am not a scientist, Gillard is not a scientist and you the reader are probably not a scientist. so what do we do? ignore their advice- i think any responsible government must act.
lets look at the package- this is the first tax in history i know of that costs the government more money than it initially recieves. but dont be fooled, this is just the cost of the goverment getting their foot in the door. like all taxes this will eventually cost everyone. what hasnt been displayed is the new tax scales as the raising of the threshold to 18k must be offset by he lowering of other tax rates since people on 80k will get no tax cut.
the greens have been clever in not making a chest beating stand- this is progress in their agenda and any talk of abbott rolling back this tax is dribble because the greens wont let him. the removal of petrol which is the greatest source of carbon is once again to make it more palatable- i believe this will be included at a future date
but like I said initially, any responsible government must act. I just dont agree with the timing. the world appears to be the verge of GFC2. we are totally reliant on the mining boom and chinas GDP. The rest of our economy is struggling-poor retail,high dollar-falling property prices. I believe that we will be in a technical recession when the latest GDP figures are released. falling global consumer demand will bring about a fall in the carbon production for now- so lets wait before we rush into this- another year wont hurt.

greens take control

with the start of the new financial year it seems like a good time to start my blog. as the greens now take control of the senate and bob brown becomes the new de-facto prime minister. of course labour have only themselves to blame as they have moved so far to the right, and with the demise of the democrats"keep the bastards honest"
who ironically capitulated because they weren't- we are now in our current situation.
so starting today the public officially puts the greens on trail. i for one will be watching intently. no longer can the greens merely contend themselves with the habitat the of purple-headed tit pecker bird. they now represent all australians and will need to find that delicate balance between their ethos and the needs of the people.
i will attempt to update every week and give my opinion on any relevant issues